With the recent decision of
Armenia to join Customs Union instead of getting a free trade deal with the EU,
once again demonstrated how dangerous can Russia get in the EU's
neighbourhood. Since it became clear that there is a high probability of 4
Eastern Partnership countries – Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia to move
closer to the EU, Kremlin intensified threats towards governments in Kiev and
Chisinau. Method used to convince EaP countries about the ‘beauty’ of Customs
Union and Eurasian Union are classic for Russia and it has been already applied
to Georgia throughout last years. Putting embargo on Moldovan products, playing
with the issue of Transnistrian conflict, manipulating with gas prices,
offering financial benefits to Ukrainian government.. Quite strong leverage for
Moscow to make foreign policy shift in respective governments, as they already
did in Armenia.
In fact, Russia didn’t even need to
threaten Yerevan, as Armenians simply do not have many options. Country is
landlocked because of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey and heavily
dependent on Russian economy. As well as Nagorno-Karabakh issue is very important
and Armenia needs Russia’s backing.. Hence, for Putin it was not hard to
convince Armenian counterpart to abandon DCFTA at the moment when country has
basically finalized the negotiations with the EU.
In this situation, when Russia
is openly threatening Moldova and Ukraine, when they have already managed to induce
Armenian president, Prime Minister of Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili is apparently
“studying” and “observing” how Eurasian Union is evolving. So that he might
consider joining it later. In addition to that, he noted that Georgia has no position
yet about this issue.
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| (c) voiceofrussia.com |
I don’t know how aware current
PM is of Georgian Foreign Policy Strategy, but it is explicit in number of
chapters of this document that European and Euro-Atlantic Integration is a key
foreign policy goal of Georgia. And considering Customs and Eurasian Union as
an alternative, is simply not compatible with even the declaratory foreign
policy goals of this government.
Not to mention that idea of joining these institutions will be largely unpopular among the population of Georgia.
Not to mention that idea of joining these institutions will be largely unpopular among the population of Georgia.
Let me also recall different
researches conducted by the CRRC and EU Neighbourhood Barometer, which
demonstrates that Georgians have highest trust towards the EU within EaP
countries (I’d argue that higher than anywhere else). In comparison with the overall 43 % of positive
attitude in the ENP East, 51 % of Georgian citizens have very positive attitude
towards the EU. With 40 % neutral and only 11 % of negative attitude. Also
based on the same research, most
Georgians feel the European Union is an important partner of their country, and
would like it to play an even greater role in Georgia, across a range of areas.
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| (c) Radio Liberty |
I think these figures say a lot
about the choice of people of Georgia and maybe Mr. Ivanishvili could have
skimmed it once again before making another political mistake?! Hundreds years of historical lessons from Russia,
should have been enough to learn that these kind of statements won’t serve for
the interests of the Georgia. Country, which has been recently invaded by Russia
and which doesn’t control up to 20 percent of its territories. Not to mention
that after numerous endeavours to settle relations with Kremlin, metre by metre Russia
still continues to shift border on Georgian side..
Under these
circumstances, statement of Georgian PM was largely immature, if not betrayal
of Georgia's security and foreign policy interests. I still hope that it
was the case of political immaturity rather than a deliberate step..
2 comments:
Black font on a black background makes your contribution impossible to read...
Thank you for the comment, but I don't quite get what do you exactly mean. posts are on white background with black letters
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